COVID-19 epidemic modelling for policy decision support in Victoria, Australia 2020-2021.

BACKGROUND: Policy responses to COVID-19 in Victoria, Australia over 2020-2021 have been supported by evidence generated through mathematical modelling. This study describes the design, key findings, and process for policy translation of a series of modelling studies conducted for the Victorian Department of Health COVID-19 response team during this period. METHODS: An agent-based model, Covasim, was used to simulate the impact of policy interventions on COVID-19 outbreaks and epidemic waves. The model was continually adapted to enable scenario analysis of settings or policies being considered at the time (e.g. elimination of community transmission versus disease control). Model scenarios were co-designed with government, to fill evidence gaps prior to key decisions. RESULTS: Understanding outbreak risk following incursions was critical to eliminating community COVID-19 transmission. Analyses showed risk depended on whether the first detected case was the index case, a primary contact of the index case, or a 'mystery case'. There were benefits of early lockdown on first case detection and gradual easing of restrictions to minimise resurgence risk from undetected cases. As vaccination coverage increased and the focus shifted to controlling rather than eliminating community transmission, understanding health system demand was critical. Analyses showed that vaccines alone could not protect health systems and need to be complemented with other public health measures. CONCLUSIONS: Model evidence offered the greatest value when decisions needed to be made pre-emptively, or for questions that could not be answered with empiric data and data analysis alone. Co-designing scenarios with policy-makers ensured relevance and increased policy translation.

Azathioprine with Allopurinol Is a Promising First-Line Therapy for Inflammatory Bowel Diseases.

BACKGROUND: Beneficial response to first-line immunosuppressive azathioprine in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is low due to high rates of adverse events. Co-administrating allopurinol has been shown to improve tolerability. However, data on this co-therapy as first-line treatment are scarce. AIM: Retrospective comparison of long-term effectiveness and safety of first-line low-dose azathioprine-allopurinol co-therapy (LDAA) with first-line azathioprine monotherapy (AZAm) in patients with IBD without metabolite monitoring. METHODS: Clinical benefit was defined as ongoing therapy without initiation of steroids, biologics or surgery. Secondary outcomes included CRP, HBI/SCCAI, steroid withdrawal and adverse events. RESULTS: In total, 166 LDAA and 118 AZAm patients (median follow-up 25 and 27 months) were evaluated. Clinical benefit was more frequently observed in LDAA patients at 6 months (74% vs. 53%, p = 0.0003), 12 months (54% vs. 37%, p = 0.01) and in the long-term (median 36 months; 37% vs. 24%, p = 0.04). Throughout follow-up, AZAm patients were 60% more likely to fail therapy, due to a higher intolerance rate (45% vs. 26%, p = 0.001). Only 73% of the effective AZA dose was tolerated in AZAm patients, while LDAA could be initiated and maintained at its target dose. Incidence of myelotoxicity and elevated liver enzymes was similar in both cohorts, and both conditions led to LDAA withdrawal in only 2%. Increasing allopurinol from 100 to 200-300 mg/day significantly lowered liver enzymes in 5/6 LDAA patients with hepatotoxicity. CONCLUSIONS: Our poor AZAm outcomes emphasize that optimization of azathioprine is needed. We demonstrated a long-term safe and more effective profile of first-line LDAA. This co-therapy may therefore be considered standard first-line immunosuppressive.

Recommendations for the optimal use of mesalazine in the management of patients with mild to moderate ulcerative colitis.

The 2021 National report from IBD UK included responses from over 10 000 patients with inflammatory bowel disease, over 70% of whom reported having at least one flare in the last 12 months. As the first-line treatment for patients with mild and moderate ulcerative colitis, the action and delivery mechanisms of mesalazine are crucial for successful management of the disease. The choice of the most appropriate formulation of mesalazine and securing patient concordance and adherence to treatment remains a challenge for healthcare professionals. This article details the outcome of a roundtable discussion involving a group of gastroenterology consultants and specialist nurses which considered the importance of ensuring that patients have individualised mesalazine therapy before escalation to other treatments and gives recommendations for the management of patients with mild or moderate ulcerative colitis.

Are bicycle lanes effective? The relationship between passing distance and road characteristics.

An on-road observational study of 162 cyclists was conducted in the Australian cities of Melbourne, Perth, Geelong, and Bendigo. Participants had a distance sensor and two video cameras fitted to their bicycle for two weeks while they cycled on their usual routes, producing 46,769 events where a motor vehicle passed a bicycle. This was the largest study to-date to record passing behavior on public roads, and a large number of road and traffic attributes that might affect passing distance were included in the analysis. When drivers pass cyclists on roads with painted bicycle lanes, they tend to give more space than on roads without bicycle lanes. This is true even when controlling for the space available on the roadway. Drivers also travel in a more predictable fashion, with less variability in passing distances when a bicycle lane is present. Protected bicycle lanes completely remove the risk of passing events less than 1 m. However, where it is not possible to build a protected bicycle lane it is preferable to have a painted bicycle lane than no bicycle lane at all. Other protective factors include: wider lanes, single lane roads, smaller vehicles, and the removal of on-street parking.

Efficacy, safety and drug survival of thioguanine as maintenance treatment for inflammatory bowel disease: a retrospective multi-centre study in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Thioguanine (TG) is a thiopurine which has been used for patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), who have failed azathioprine (AZA) or mercaptopurine (MP) due to adverse events or suboptimal response. Its widespread use has been hampered due to concerns about nodular regenerative hyperplasia (NRH) of the liver. The aim of this study was to investigate the long-term efficacy and safety of low-dose TG therapy in IBD patients failing AZA and MP. METHODS: A retrospective multicentre study was performed in IBD patients who failed prior treatment with conventional thiopurines with or without following immunomodulation (thiopurine-allopurinol, biologicals, methotrexate, tacrolimus) and were subsequently treated with TG as rescue monotherapy between 2003 and 2019 at three hospitals in the United Kingdom. Clinical response, adverse events, laboratory results, imaging and liver biopsies were retrospectively collected. RESULTS: A total of 193 patients (57% female and 64% Crohn's disease) were included, with a median daily TG dose of 20 mg (range: 20-40 mg), a median treatment duration of 23 months (IQR 10-47) and a median follow-up of 36 months (IQR 22-53). The clinical response rate at 12 months was 65 and 54% remained on TG until the end of follow-up. Adverse events consisted primarily of elevated liver tests (6%), myelotoxicity (7%) and rash (5%). NRH was histologically diagnosed in two patients and two other patients (1%) developed non-cirrhotic portal hypertension. The median 6-TGN and TPMT levels were 953 pmol/8 × 105 RBC (IQR 145-1761) and 47 mu/L (IQR 34.5-96). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term follow-up suggests that TG can be an effective and well-tolerated therapy in more than half of difficult-to-treat and multi-therapy failing IBD patients. Findings of this study indicate that TG can be used safely and the occurrence of hepatotoxicity was low. The incidence rate of NRH was within the background incidence.

Syringe Administration of Epinephrine by Emergency Medical Technicians for Anaphylaxis.

OBJECTIVE: In recent years, the costs of epinephrine autoinjectors (EAIs) in the United States have risen substantially. King County Emergency Medical Services implemented the "Check and Inject" program to replace EAIs by teaching emergency medical technicians (EMTs) to manually aspirate epinephrine from a single-use 1 mg/mL epinephrine vial using a needle and syringe followed by prehospital intramuscular administration of the correct adult or pediatric dose of epinephrine for anaphylaxis or serious allergic reaction. Treatment was guided by an EMT protocol that required a trigger and symptoms. We sought to determine if the "Check and Inject" program was safely implemented by EMTs treating presumed prehospital anaphylaxis or serious allergic reaction. METHODS: We conducted a prospective investigation of all cases treated as part of the "Check and Inject" program from July 2014 through December 2016 in suburban King County, Washington, and January 2016 through December 2016 within the city of Seattle. All cases were prospectively collected using a custom quality improvement data form completed by the first responding EMTs. Two physicians completed a structured review of each EMS medical record to determine if the EMTs followed the Check and Inject protocol and determine if epinephrine was clinically-indicated based on physician review. RESULTS: Of the 411 cases eligible for analysis, EMTs followed the protocol appropriately in 367 (89.3%) cases. In the remaining 44 (10.7%) cases, the EMS incident report form failed to document either a clear inciting allergic trigger or an appropriate symptom from the protocol list. Physician review determined that epinephrine was clinically indicated in 36 of the 44 cases. Among the remaining 8 cases (1.9%) that did not meet protocol criteria and were not clinically-indicated based on physician review, none had a documented adverse reaction to the epinephrine. CONCLUSION: We observed that EMTs successfully implemented the manual "Check and Inject" program for severe allergic reactions and anaphylaxis in a manner that typically agreed with physician review and without any overt identified safety issues.

Diet1, bile acid diarrhea, and FGF15/19: mouse model and human genetic variants.

Diet1 modulates intestinal production of the hormone, fibroblast growth factor (FGF)15, which signals in liver to regulate bile acid synthesis. C57BL/6ByJ mice with a spontaneous Diet1-null mutation are resistant to hypercholesterolemia compared with wild-type C57BL/6J mice through enhanced cholesterol conversion to bile acids. To further characterize the role of Diet1 in metabolism, we generated Diet1-/- mice on the C57BL/6J genetic background. C57BL/6J Diet1-/- mice had elevated bile acid levels, reduced Fgf15 expression, and increased gastrointestinal motility and intestinal luminal water content, which are symptoms of bile acid diarrhea (BAD) in humans. Natural genetic variation in Diet1 mRNA expression levels across 76 inbred mouse strains correlated positively with Ffg15 mRNA and negatively with serum bile acid levels. This led us to investigate the role of DIET1 genetic variation in primary BAD patients. We identified a DIET1 coding variant (rs12256835) that had skewed prevalence between BAD cases and controls. This variant causes an H1721Q amino acid substitution that increases the levels of FGF19 protein secreted from cultured cells. We propose that genetic variation in DIET1 may be a determinant of FGF19 secretion levels, and may affect bile acid metabolism in both physiological and pathological conditions.

Novel associations of bile acid diarrhoea with fatty liver disease and gallstones: a cohort retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Bile acid diarrhoea (BAD) is a common cause of chronic diarrhoea with a population prevalence of primary BAD around 1%. Previous studies have identified associations with low levels of the ileal hormone fibroblast growth factor 19 (FGF19), obesity and hypertriglyceridaemia. The aim of this study was to identify further associations of BAD. METHODS: A cohort of patients with chronic diarrhoea who underwent 75selenohomocholic acid taurate (SeHCAT) testing for BAD was further analysed retrospectively. Additional clinical details available from the electronic patient record, including imaging, colonoscopy, chemistry and histopathology reports were used to calculate the prevalence of fatty liver disease, gallstones, colonic neoplasia and microscopic colitis, which was compared for BAD, the primary BAD subset and control patients with diarrhoea. FINDINGS: Of 578 patients, 303 (52%) had BAD, defined as a SeHCAT 7d retention value <15%, with 179 (31%) having primary BAD. 425 had an alanine aminotransferase (ALT) recorded, 184 had liver imaging and 176 had both. Overall, SeHCAT values were negatively associated with ALT (rs=-0.19, p<0.0001). Patients with BAD had an OR of 3.1 for an ALT >31 ng/mL with imaging showing fatty liver (p<0.001); similar figures occurred in the primary BAD group. FGF19 was not significantly related to fatty liver but low levels were predictive of ALT >40 IU/L. In 176 subjects with gallbladder imaging, 27% had gallstones, 7% had a prior cholecystectomy and 34% either of these. The median SeHCAT values were lower in those with gallstones (3.8%, p<0.0001), or gallstones/cholecystectomy (7.2%, p<0.001), compared with normal gallbladder imaging (14%). Overall, BAD had an OR of 2.0 for gallstones/cholecystectomy (p<0.05). BAD was not significantly associated with colonic adenoma/carcinoma or with microscopic colitis. INTERPRETATION: The diagnosis of BAD is associated with fatty liver disease and with gallstones. The reasons for these associations require further investigation into potential metabolic causes.

Characterizing Factors Associated With Differences in FGF19 Blood Levels and Synthesis in Patients With Primary Bile Acid Diarrhea.

OBJECTIVES: Chronic diarrhea caused by primary bile acid diarrhea (PBAD) is a common condition. We have previously shown PBAD is associated with low fasting serum levels of the ileal hormone, fibroblast growth factor 19 (FGF19). FGF19 is a negative regulator of hepatic bile acid synthesis and is stimulated by farnesoid X receptor agonists, which produce symptomatic improvement in PBAD. We aimed to assess possible causes for low serum FGF19 in patients with PBAD. METHODS: Patients with PBAD, defined by reduced (75)Se-labelled homocholic acid taurine (SeHCAT) retention, and idiopathic diarrhea controls had measurements of fasting lipids and fasting/post-prandial FGF19 serum profiles. Specific functional variants in candidate genes were investigated in exploratory studies. In further groups, basal and bile acid-stimulated transcript expression was determined in ileal biopsies and explant cultures by quantitative PCR. RESULTS: FGF19 profiles in PBAD patients included low fasting and meal-stimulated responses, which were both strongly correlated with SeHCAT. A subgroup of 30% of PBAD patients had fasting hypertriglyceridemia and higher FGF19. No clear significant differences were found for any genetic variant but there were borderline associations with FGFR4 and KLB. SeHCAT retention significantly correlated with the basal ileal transcript expression of FGF19 (rs=0.59, P=0.03) and apical sodium-dependent bile acid transporter (ASBT) (rs=0.49, P=0.04), and also with the degree of stimulation by chenodeoxycholic acid at 6 h for transcripts of FGF19 (median 184-fold, rs=0.50, P=0.02) and ileal bile acid binding protein (IBABP) (median 2.2-fold, rs=0.47, P=0.04). Median stimulation of FGF19 was lower in patients with SeHCAT retention <10% (P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: These studies demonstrate a complex, multifactorial etiology of PBAD, including impairments in ileal FGF19 expression and responsiveness.

Diarrhea in Crohn's disease: investigating the role of the ileal hormone fibroblast growth factor 19.

BACKGROUND: Bile acids [BA] are usually reabsorbed by the terminal ileum, but this process is frequently abnormal in Crohn's disease [CD]. BA malabsorption occurs, and excess colonic BA cause secretory diarrhea. Furthermore, the hormone fibroblast growth factor 19 [FGF19] is synthesized in the ileum in response to BA absorption and regulates BA synthesis. We hypothesized that reduced serum FGF19 levels will be associated with diarrheal symptoms and disease activity in both ileal resected[IR-CD] and non-resected CD [NR-CD] patients. METHODS: Fasting serum FGF19 levels were measured in 58 patients [23 IR-CD patients and 35NR-CD patients]. Disease activity was assessed using the Harvey Bradshaw Index and C-reactive protein [CRP]. Stool frequency, Bristol Stool Form Scale and length of previous ileal resection were recorded. FGF19 levels were also compared with healthy and diarrhea control patients. RESULTS: FGF19 levels were inversely correlated with ileal resection length in IR-CD patients[r = -0.54, p = 0.02]. In NR-CD patients, median FGF19 levels were significantly lower in patients with active disease compared with inactive disease [103 vs. 158 pg/ml, p = 0.04] and in those with symptoms of diarrhea compared with those without [86 vs. 145 pg/ml, p = 0.035]. FGF19 levels were inversely correlated with stool frequency, Bristol stool form and CRP in NR-CD patients with ileal disease. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced FGF19 levels are associated with ileal resection, diarrhea and disease activity. FGF19 may have utility as a biomarker for functioning ileum in CD. This study supports a potential role of FGF19 in guiding treatments for diarrhea in Crohn's disease.

Potent stimulation of fibroblast growth factor 19 expression in the human ileum by bile acids.

Fibroblast growth factor 19 (FGF19) is proposed to be a negative feedback regulator of hepatic bile acid (BA) synthesis. We aimed to clarify the distribution of FGF19 expression in human intestine and to investigate induction in a novel explant system. Ileal and colonic mucosal biopsies were obtained at endoscopy and analyzed for FGF19 transcript expression. Primary explants were incubated with physiological concentrations of various BA for up to 6 h, and expression of FGF19 and other genes was determined. FGF19 transcripts were detected in ileum but were unquantifiable in colon. No loss of FGF19 mRNA occurred as a consequence of the explant system. Ileal FGF19 transcript expression was induced 350-fold by 50 µM chenodeoxycholate (CDCA, n = 24, P < 0.0001) and 161-fold by 50 µM glycochenodeoxycholate (GCDCA, n = 12, P = 0.0005). The responses of other genes to CDCA or GCDCA (50 µM) were smaller: median increases of ileal bile acid binding protein, organic solute transporter-α and -ß, and short heterodimer partner were 2.4- to 4.0-fold; apical membrane sodium bile acid transporter and farnesoid X receptor (FXR) showed little change. The EC50 for FGF19 transcript induction by CDCA was 20 µM. FGF19 protein concentrations were significantly higher in the culture fluid from BA-stimulated explants. FGF19 induction with cholate was 81% of that found with CDCA, but deoxycholate (40%) and lithocholate (4%) were significantly less potent. The synthetic FXR agonist obeticholic acid was much more potent than CDCA with a 70-fold FGF19 stimulation at 1 µM. We concluded that FGF19 expression in human ileum is very highly responsive to BA. Changes in FGF19 induction are a potential mechanism involved in disorders of BA homeostasis.

Altered enterohepatic circulation of bile acids in Crohn's disease and their clinical significance: a new perspective.

The role of bile acids (BA) extends far beyond lipid digestion and cholesterol metabolism. The transcriptional regulation of multiple genes within the liver and intestine are under their influence. BA exert these effects through binding and activating receptors in much the same way as endocrine hormones. The farnesoid X receptor (FXR) is the intracellular transcription factor for BA; TGR5 is the cell-surface receptor. The main target genes of FXR are those involved in BA and cholesterol metabolism. Yet more recently, FXR has also been shown to influence and promote certain protective pathways within the liver. These pathways are being harnessed by semisynthetic BAs in Phase II and III clinical trials. FXR activation within the intestine is also associated with similar protective pathways. This article examines the consequences of altered FXR activation in the context of BA malabsorption in Crohn's disease and the potential benefits of FXR agonists in Crohn's disease.

New insights into bile acid malabsorption.

Bile acid malabsorption occurs when there is impaired absorption of bile acids in the terminal ileum, so interrupting the normal enterohepatic circulation. The excess bile acids in the colon cause diarrhea, and treatment with bile acid sequestrants is beneficial. The condition can be diagnosed with difficulty by measuring fecal bile acids, or more easily by retention of selenohomocholyltaurine (SeHCAT), where this is available. Chronic diarrhea caused by primary bile acid diarrhea appears to be common, but is under-recognized where SeHCAT testing is not performed. Measuring excessive bile acid synthesis with 7α-hydroxy-4-cholesten-3-one may be an alternative means of diagnosis. It appears that there is no absorption defect in primary bile acid diarrhea but, instead, an overproduction of bile acids. Fibroblast growth factor 19 (FGF19) inhibits hepatic bile acid synthesis. Defective production of FGF19 from the ileum may be the cause of primary bile acid diarrhea.

Case Report: Fatal case of disseminated BCG infection in an infant born to a mother taking infliximab for Crohn's disease.

We present the case of a 28 year old lady with refractory Crohn's Disease treated with infliximab throughout her pregnancy. Her baby was born healthy and received a Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine aged 3 months. Soon after this the infant became unwell and died aged 4.5 months. At post-mortem the cause of death was attributed to an unusual complication of the BCG vaccine, known as disseminated BCG. BCG vaccination is contraindicated in individuals who are receiving immunosuppressive drugs. We recommend physicians should exercise caution before such vaccines are used in infants born to mothers taking anti-TNF therapies or other potentially immunosuppressive IgG1 antibodies.

Trisodium citrate 46.7% selectively and safely reduces staphylococcal catheter-related bacteraemia.

BACKGROUND: Trisodium citrate (TSC) 30% has been shown in a randomized control trial to be an effective antimicrobial catheter locking solution, able to significantly reduce catheter-related bacteraemia (CRB) in haemodialysis patients. Since that report, the formulation in Europe has been changed to 46.7% TSC without confirmatory data on efficacy. We report a 55 915 patient-day at risk experience in tunnelled lines of 46.7% TSC, emphasizing efficacy and changes in microbiology seen. METHODS: On 1 July 2006, inter-dialytic catheter locking solution was changed from 5000 IU/ml heparin to Citra-lock(TM) (46.7% TSC) in all haemodialysis patients at Barts and the London Renal Unit dialysing through an incident or prevalent tunnelled catheter. Prospectively collected blood culture data for the 6 months prior to the switch and 3 months at the end of the first year of TSC use were analysed. TSC tolerability was excellent with only a single withdrawal for intolerance of the agent. No major adverse events were reported. RESULTS: A major fall in CRB rates was noticed with a change from heparin (2.13/1000 catheter-days) in 2006 to TSC (0.81/1000 catheter-days) in 2007. This was due to significant reductions in staphylococcal CRB, true for sensitive, methicillin-resistant and coagulase-negative staphylococci. No increase in catheter malfunction was observed. CONCLUSIONS: We found that 46.7% TSC is a safe, convenient and highly effective catheter locking solution, leading to significant reduction in CRB largely by preventing staphylococcal bloodstream infections. Given that Staphylococcus aureus in particular is associated with serious and often disseminated infection, TSC seems to be a powerful tool for dialysis units.